The need for Scenarios for firms is emphasised by a recent HBR article showing that Corporate
death now occurs on average at 32 years old - down from 55 forty years ago. Companies
are dying younger as the Business Environment is becoming more complex and less predictable,
more diverse and inter connected. Firms are failing to adapt to their Business Environments and may
miss read them. They select the wrong Strategy, and fail to support a viable approach with the right
See Business Trends Library Briefings where it is shown that
Scenarios drawn from a fully comprehensive database will identify more of the Surprises in the
See Business Trends Library Briefings where it is shown that Scenarios drawn from a fully comprehensive database will identify more of the Surprises in the Business Environment.
1. THE TEN AREAS OF THE BUSINESS TRENDS LIBRARY
The Business Trends Library is constructed from 10 Major Areas:
The links give the Contents of the Area.
2. SECTORS OF THE BUSINESS TRENDS LIBRARY
Each Area is made up of a number of Sectors - each
a fundamental activity of man with a long history. The above links show an Area's Sectors.
All the Sectors can be seen here.
Historical Analysis identifies long term trends in each Sector. Interaction of these trends within different Sectors of the Library is the key to future Scenarios ( Dr Richard Whaley, Futures 16 p269-76, June 1985). The pattern of such Impacts of major trends between the ten Areas is shown below.
Sectors selected for a firm thus contain relevant impacts from the whole Library.
People doing Business Environment Assessment generally do not look
wide enough to identify things which will affect them. More Surprises are revealed
the more comprehensive the database from which the Scenarios are drawn.
To order a Prospectus, see Orders (Section 4).
Dr R H G Whaley to order:
- Prospectus for Scenarios from the Business Trends Library.
- Pick your own selection of Scenarios from the Business Trends Library.
INDEX TO OTHER PAGES
Business Trends Publications - BTL Briefings, Summary Scenarios, On-line Areas.